Alright, let’s talk about trying to figure out how the Houston Rockets games would turn out. It started pretty simply, really. I’m a fan, watch the games, and figured maybe I could get a bit smarter about predicting the outcomes, you know, beyond just gut feeling.
Getting Started – The Eye Test
First off, I just watched. A lot. Paid attention to how the team played together, who was having a good night, the general energy. I thought, okay, if I watch enough, I’ll get a real sense for when they’re gonna win or lose. Seemed logical at the time. Watched the flow, saw the ups and downs.
Moving to Basic Numbers
Well, turns out my ‘eye test’ wasn’t exactly foolproof. I was wrong plenty of times. So, I decided I needed something more concrete. I started digging into the numbers a bit. Nothing too crazy, just the basics.
- Box Scores: After each game, I’d look up the points, rebounds, assists. Focused mainly on the key guys, like Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green, see how they performed.
- Team Stats: Then I thought, I need to look before the game. So, I started checking season averages – points for, points against, maybe field goal percentage. Compared the Rockets’ numbers to their opponents’.
- Home vs. Away: Seemed obvious that teams often play better at home, so I factored that in mentally.
I found some sports websites with all this data readily available. Felt like I was getting somewhere, adding a bit of structure to my guesses.
Trying to Build a Simple System
This is where it got a bit more involved. I figured, let me try and organize this stuff. I actually started a simple spreadsheet. Before a game, I’d plug in some numbers:
- Team records
- Recent performance (like, how they did in the last five games)
- Basic offensive and defensive rankings
- Opponent’s basic stats
Then came the injuries. This was a real pain. You’d think you have a good read on the game, and then boom, a key player is suddenly out right before tip-off. Trying to keep track of who was in and who was out, and how much it mattered, was tough. Information wasn’t always clear or timely.
I also tried to think about matchups. You know, does our center have an advantage? Can our guards keep up with theirs? This part was still mostly based on watching games, less about hard data because digging that deep felt like a full-time job.
Where It All Landed
Honestly? My little system didn’t really crack the code. Sometimes my predictions lined up, maybe even felt smart. Other times, they were way off. There’s just so much stuff you can’t easily put into a simple spreadsheet.
Things like team chemistry on a given night, coaching strategies, someone just having an unexpectedly amazing game (or a terrible one), momentum shifts within the game… it’s incredibly complex. The pros have sophisticated models and tons of data analytics people. I was just one guy messing around with basic stats.
So, what I do now is different. I still look at the basic stats before a game, check the injury report. It helps frame my expectations. But I stopped trying to make it a formal prediction ‘system’. It was taking the fun out of just watching the game, adding stress when the prediction went wrong.
Now, I just use that basic info to have a slightly more informed perspective while I watch. It’s more about understanding the context of the game rather than nailing the final score. Way more enjoyable this way. Predicting basketball, especially consistently, is just really, really hard.
