Okay, let me walk you through what I did when I got interested in making some predictions about João Fonseca. It wasn’t anything super scientific, just me messing around based on what I saw.
Getting Started with Fonseca
So, I first heard about this kid, João Fonseca, I think during one of the clay tournaments, maybe Rio? He had a good run, beat some established guys. That always catches my eye, you know? Young player making waves. I thought, “Okay, let’s see what this guy is about.” I wasn’t planning some big analysis project, more like a personal tracking thing.
Watching and Gathering Impressions
First step was obvious: watch him play. I pulled up some match highlights, then found a couple of full matches online. You get a feel for a player watching them move, seeing their attitude on court. What I noticed right away was his easy power, especially off the forehand wing. He seemed pretty comfortable on the big stage too, which isn’t always the case for young players.
Then I did some basic digging. Just went online, looked up his recent results. Who did he beat? Who did he lose to? What were the scores? I wasn’t crunching numbers or anything, just getting a general picture. Saw he’d made a big jump in the rankings pretty quick. That usually means something.
- Checked his recent tournament performances.
- Looked at the quality of players he faced.
- Noted his ranking progression over the last few months.
- Watched how he handled pressure points in the matches I saw.
Forming the Prediction (My Gut Feeling)
Alright, after watching him and seeing the results, I started forming an opinion. Again, this wasn’t about complex algorithms. It was pure gut feeling based on experience watching tennis for years. He looked like he had the weapons, especially that forehand, and a decent mentality.
My thinking went something like this: He’s young, already beating Top 50 players, has home crowd support in Brazil which helps, and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. The potential is clearly there. Needs to improve consistency, maybe the serve placement under pressure, like most young guys.
So, my prediction wasn’t a specific ranking number by a specific date. It was more directional. I wrote down something simple for myself, like:
“Fonseca prediction: Strong upside. Likely breaks Top 100 comfortably within the next 12 months. Potential for Top 50 soon after if development continues and stays injury-free. Key factors: Forehand development, consistency, tour-level fitness.”
Just Keeping Track
And that was basically it. I didn’t build a model or run simulations. I just observed, used my own judgment from watching tons of tennis, and made a simple prediction based on potential and current trajectory. Wrote it down to see how my hunch plays out over the next year or so. It’s always fun to look back later and see if you were close or way off. It’s more about testing my own eye for talent than anything else.
